Bitcoin

Key insight

The critical battleground is the 50-month EMA at $65,600: a clean weekly close above it would signal the first structural recovery since the October 2025 all-time high at $126,198; failure here risks a retest of the late-June low at $58,115.

BTC at $64,742 is testing the 50-month EMA resistance at ~$65,600 — a level that has flipped from multi-year support to active resistance — while the Fear & Greed Index remains pinned at 22 (Extreme Fear), capping conviction in either direction.

Main risk

FOMC July 28-29 Rate Decision — Hawkish Hold or Surprise Hike

Markets price a ~70% chance of a hold but any hint of a rate hike — or hawkish guidance from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — would crush risk assets and likely drive BTC back below $60,000.