Bitcoin

Key insight

The single most important level right now is the 50-month EMA at $65,600 — a clean daily close above it would structurally flip the trend back bullish, while continued rejection here risks a retest of the June low at $58,115 ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.

BTC at $64,459 is pinned just below the critical 50-month EMA at ~$65,600, which has flipped from multi-year support to active resistance, capping the recovery rally and keeping the intermediate trend bearish.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Rate Decision — Hike Risk

Markets price ~70% probability the Fed holds at the July 28–29 meeting, but the residual risk skews toward a hike rather than a cut, which would be a direct negative catalyst for risk assets including Bitcoin.