Bitcoin

Key insight

BTC is 49% below its October 2025 ATH of $126,198 and faces a pivotal FOMC meeting on July 28–29, where a surprise rate hike — currently a tail risk — would be the most immediate catalyst for a sharp leg lower through $62,000.

Bitcoin is consolidating near $64,400, caught between the reclaimed $63,000 support zone and the key $65,471 short-term resistance, with on-chain data from Glassnode failing to confirm a sustained trend reversal despite the recent ETF inflow bounce.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Rate Decision — Hike Tail Risk

Markets price ~70% probability of a hold, but even a hawkish hold statement from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could push BTC below the $62,600 week low and test the $60,000 round-number psychological support.