Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin has recovered from its early-July sub-$63,000 lows but remains capped below the $65,471 swing high; on-chain data from Glassnode shows no confirmed trend reversal, making the FOMC decision next week the single most important near-term catalyst.

BTC is consolidating at $64,001 — below the key $65,000 resistance tested on July 15 — as the FOMC July 28–29 meeting looms with a 70% probability of a hold and a residual hike risk that caps upside for risk assets.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Rate Decision — Residual Hike Risk

Markets price ~70% probability of a hold but a non-trivial hike tail risk; any hawkish signal from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could send BTC below the $62,000 structural support level.