Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin is pinned beneath the critical 50-month EMA (~$65,600) with the FOMC decision on July 28–29 looming — a hawkish hold or hike signal would be the catalyst to retest the June swing low at $58,115.

BTC at $64,220 is trading below its 50-month EMA at ~$65,600, which has flipped from structural support to resistance, capping any near-term rally attempt.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Rate Decision — Hawkish Hold Risk

Markets price ~70% probability of a hold with residual risk skewed toward a hike, not a cut — a hawkish statement from Fed Chair Warsh would directly pressure risk assets including BTC, threatening the $60,000 psychological level.