Bitcoin

Key insight

BTC has given back all of its recent bounce from $62,600, now sitting below the critical $65,000 psychological level and the 20-day MA, with no fundamental catalyst — Bitfinex confirms the prior recovery to $66,990 was seller exhaustion rather than genuine demand.

BTC is trading below the key $65,000 round-number support and the short-term 20-day MA (~$65,800), with the Fear & Greed Index collapsing to 28 — deep in "Fear" territory — as rate-hike odds sit at 40% under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Main risk

Fed Rate Hike Risk Under New Chair Kevin Warsh

Markets are pricing a 40% chance of a rate hike in 2026, and newly confirmed Fed Chair Warsh — confirmed 54-45, the closest vote in modern history — is seen as hawkish, threatening risk-asset valuations including crypto.