Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin is in a low-conviction no-man's-land: 48% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198, with the July 28–29 FOMC meeting — where markets price a 70% chance of a hold but a non-trivial hike risk — acting as the dominant near-term binary catalyst.

BTC is consolidating at $65,354 — trapped between the $66,990 Bitfinex-identified resistance (driven by thin selling and derivatives, not genuine demand) and the key $63,000–$62,600 support zone tested earlier this week, with the Fear & Greed Index at 28 (Fear) capping upside conviction.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Rate Decision — Hike Risk

Markets currently price ~70% probability of a hold, but the residual probability points to a hike rather than a cut, and any hawkish surprise from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would immediately pressure risk assets including BTC below the $62,600 support.