Bitcoin

Key insight

With the FOMC meeting on July 28–29 leaning 70% toward a hold (with residual hike risk, not cut), BTC has no central-bank tailwind and must clear the 50-month EMA at $65,600 to avoid further deterioration toward the June low at $58,115.

BTC is trading just below its 50-month EMA at $65,600, a level that has flipped from structural support to active resistance, capping the current recovery attempt.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 rate decision with residual hike risk

Markets price a 70% probability of a hold but a residual risk of a hike — not a cut — meaning no Fed pivot rescue for BTC in the near term; a hawkish surprise could break the June low at $58,115.