Bitcoin

Key insight

75,785 sits in no-man's land: 200-day MA at ~74,000 limits downside, but 78,000 resistance capped three recent rallies. Gold +1.4% signals risk-off hedging, not crypto risk appetite. Break of either level resolves direction.

75,785 holds above the 200-day MA (~74,000) but stalls below the 78,000 prior breakdown level — range-bound consolidation with no directional catalyst confirmed.

Main risk

Gold/BTC divergence at key resistance

Gold surging to 4,355 while BTC flat at 75,785 signals flight to hard assets — not crypto. Fails to reclaim 78,000 keeps sellers in control.