Bitcoin

Key insight

$75,984 pierces the $77,500–$78,500 range base — opens $74,000 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Fed decision this week is the binary catalyst; no recovery likely until rate path clears.

Broke below $77,500 range floor — now at $75,984, a level not seen since early August. Fed rate hike at 66% probability per CME FedWatch crushes non-yielding assets.

Main risk

Fed rate hike – Sep 17 FOMC

66% CME probability of 25bp hike; confirmation sends BTC toward $74,000 Fib support, invalidating the Sept rally.