Bitcoin

Key insight

77,132 sits in the lower half of a $77,500–$82,200 consolidation range; Sep CPI print (released Fri) and FOMC decision are the binary catalysts — no breakout trade until price clears $82,200 on volume.

77,132 holds above Aug range floor ~$77,500 by a thin margin; Fed rate-hike odds at 66% (CME FedWatch) cap upside, while 3-week ETF inflow streak (~$987M/wk) underpins demand.

Main risk

Fed rate hike — Sep FOMC decision

CME FedWatch at 66% probability of 25bp hike Sep 2026; confirmed hike would drive real yields higher, pressuring non-yielding BTC toward $74,000 support.