Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin is caught between a geopolitically-driven oil spike (crude surging to $90.8, a massive leap from prior levels) stoking inflation fears and a hawkish Fed holding rates on July 28–29, making a sustained breakout above $66,000 the critical test this week.

BTC is trading below the key $65,471 short-term resistance tested on July 15, with on-chain metrics from Glassnode yet to confirm a trend reversal and the Fear & Greed Index pinned at 22 (Extreme Fear).

Main risk

FOMC Rate Decision – July 28–29

Markets price a ~70% chance the Fed holds rates at the July 28–29 meeting with residual odds tilted toward a hike, not a cut — eliminating near-term liquidity catalyst for crypto.