Bitcoin

Neutral

Archived analysis from Sep 11, 2026, 1:35 PM

Key insight

$80K capped BTC after strong Aug jobs report killed rate-cut bets; hold above 77,071 (20-day EMA) is the line separating consolidation from a deeper retest of 75,000.

77,729 holds above 20-day EMA (~77,071) but $80K rejected — Fed rate-hike risk (66% CME probability) caps upside; ETF inflows ($987M/wk) cushion downside.

Main risk

Fed rate hike — Sep FOMC decision

66% CME probability of 25 bps hike at Sep FOMC; a confirmed hike pressures BTC below 77,071 EMA toward 75,000.

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