Bitcoin

Key insight

Break below 75,000 round support opens a retest of the 200-day MA near 72,000; reclaiming 78,500 (50-day MA) is the minimum needed to shift momentum back to bulls.

76,865 sits below the 80,000 round-number resistance and the 50-day MA near 78,500 — BTC has failed to reclaim either level, keeping the short-term trend tilted lower.

Main risk

Spot ETF flow reversal

Sustained ETF outflows above $500M/day have historically preceded 10–15% BTC drawdowns; current equity softness amplifies redemption risk.