Bitcoin

Key insight

$78,500 range floor is the line in the sand: hold it and $82,200 breakout target stays live; lose it and $75K opens. ETF inflows ($987M last week) provide a floor but Fed policy shift is the swing factor.

Consolidates at $78,368 — range floor $77,500–$78,500 holds but $80K resistance capped every rally since Sep 4 peak at $81K; Fed rate-hike risk at 66% dampens breakout conviction.

Main risk

Fed Sep rate hike — 66% probability

August jobs report tripled estimates; CME FedWatch at 66.4% for 25bp hike — kills near-term rate-cut hope and caps BTC under $80K.