Bitcoin

Key insight

80,000 is the line — reclaim it on volume and 85,000 opens up; lose 77,000 (200-day MA) and 72,000 becomes the next structural test. Gold at 4,378 and oil at 92.6 suggest risk-on macro, mildly supportive.

78,633 holds above the 200-day MA near 77,000 but stalls below 80,000 resistance — flat +0.2% print signals consolidation, not conviction, in either direction.

Main risk

Regulatory Crackdown Risk

Sudden adverse crypto legislation or exchange enforcement action could trigger flush through 77,000 200-day MA support toward 72,000.