Bitcoin

Key insight

Rejection below 82,500 (200-day MA) with ETH mirroring the -0.5% move signals broad crypto weakness; a daily close below 78,000 opens a retest of the 75,000 cycle pivot.

78,923 holds below the 200-day MA near 82,500 — BTC underperforms equities on a risk-on day, confirming distribution pressure ahead of key macro catalysts.

Main risk

Macro liquidity tightening / real yields

Elevated real yields compress risk-premium assets; BTC historically drops 20-30% in sustained high-rate regimes without a fresh catalyst like ETF inflows.