Bitcoin

Key insight

80,000 round-number pivot must hold on a daily close basis; failure flips structure toward 74,500 200-day MA. Reclaim of 85,000 prior range base needed to restore bullish momentum.

79,850 holds the 80k round number but trails the 2025 ATH by ~20% — flat 24h change signals indecision as equities drift lower and gold anchors near 4,430.

Main risk

Spot ETF outflow acceleration

Sustained ETF net outflows drain spot demand; break below 78,000 Fib 38.2% would confirm institutional de-risking and open 74,500.