Bitcoin

Key insight

80,000 is the battleground: three consecutive closes above it signal accumulation, but rejection here targets 76,400 (Feb swing low). Reclaiming 83,500 (200-day MA) is the only level that flips momentum structurally bullish.

80,000 holds as pivotal round-number support, but BTC has failed to reclaim the 200-day MA near 83,500 — no trend confirmation in either direction.

Main risk

Macro risk-off / equity correlation

S&P 500 at 7,709 slipping; BTC's 90-day correlation to equities above 0.6 means a broader sell-off drags BTC through 80,000 fast.