Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin has recovered ~10% from its July lows near $58,115 but is stalling precisely at the 50-month EMA (~$65,600) — a level that has historically been the line between bull and bear regimes — while on-chain data from Glassnode has not yet confirmed a genuine trend reversal.

BTC is pinned exactly at the 50-month EMA (~$65,600), a former major support now acting as resistance, creating a critical decision point with no clear directional conviction.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Meeting — Rate Hike Risk

Markets price a ~70% chance the Fed holds at the July 28–29 meeting, but the residual risk skews toward a hike not a cut, removing any near-term dovish catalyst for BTC and keeping USD pressure elevated.