Bitcoin

Key insight

$75,000 round number is the line in the sand: a daily close below it flips the post-halving structure bearish and opens $68,500. Hold above $79,500 (50-day MA) to re-engage bulls.

Dropped 1.9% to $77,368 — trading below the 50-day MA at ~$79,500 and losing ground against a risk-off tape as gold falls 2.7% and ETH sheds 2.2% in sympathy.

Main risk

USD strength / risk-off rotation

EUR/USD -0.3% to 1.1588, USD/JPY +0.3% to 160.2 — dollar bid drains liquidity from crypto; BTC most vulnerable below 50-day MA at $79,500.