Bitcoin

Key insight

Holds above 200-week MA (~74,500) but stalls 6% below the 82,000 prior breakdown zone. Reclaim of 82,000 needed to shift structure bullish; failure of 75,000 opens 68,500.

78,487 sits between 75,000 support and 82,000 resistance — no breakout catalyst evident. Flat S&P 500 and mild ETH weakness confirm risk-off drift without panic selling.

Main risk

USD/JPY stability at 159.8 unwinding

Yen carry-trade unwind at 160 historically triggers BTC liquidations; a break below 158 could flush leveraged longs toward 68,500.