Bitcoin

Key insight

80,000 and the 200-day MA (~79,500) cap every recovery attempt. Holding below both confirms distribution; a daily close above flips the bias and targets 84,000.

78,119 sits below the 80,000 round-number resistance and the 200-day MA near 79,500 — bulls have failed to reclaim either level, keeping the near-term structure bearish.

Main risk

Risk-off equity sell-off contagion

S&P 500 -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.3%, DAX -0.8% on same session — broad risk-off drags BTC when correlation spikes above 0.7.