Bitcoin

Key insight

80,000 is the line in the sand: reclaim it on volume and the 2026 range high at 89,500 opens; lose 78,500 (200-week MA) and the next meaningful floor is the 2025 cycle pivot near 72,000.

79,047 holds above the 200-week MA near 78,500 but stalls below the key 80,000 round-number resistance — no directional conviction until one of those levels breaks cleanly.

Main risk

USD/JPY at 160 — carry unwind risk

160 JPY ceiling historically triggers forced carry unwind; BTC sold alongside risk assets in each 2024-25 yen shock episode.