Bitcoin

Key insight

78,165 sits in no-man's-land: 200-day MA at ~77,000 provides a floor, but 80,000 round-number resistance caps upside. A weekly close above 80,000 re-opens 85,000; a break of 77,000 risks 72,000.

78,165 holds above the 200-day MA near 77,000 but stalls below key resistance at 80,000 — range-bound until a directional catalyst breaks the deadlock.

Main risk

Macro risk-off / USD strength spike

Sudden USD rally or equity sell-off historically drags BTC 10-15% within days — 77,000 200-day MA must hold or 72,000 comes fast.