Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin is testing the 50-month EMA at ~$65,600 — a level that has capped every rally attempt since the ATH collapse from $126,198; a decisive weekly close above it would flip the technical structure bullish, while rejection here risks a retest of the June low at $58,115.

BTC is trading at $65,894 — directly at the 50-month EMA resistance (~$65,600) that flipped from support to resistance during the 2026 drawdown, making this a critical inflection zone with no clean directional conviction yet.

Main risk

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hawkish policy pivot

Warsh, confirmed in a razor-thin 54-45 Senate vote, has a historically hawkish reputation, and markets are pricing a non-trivial chance of a 2026 rate hike which would further compress risk-asset valuations and weigh heavily on BTC.