Bitcoin

Key insight

$80,000 is the make-or-break line: three failed weekly closes above it keep bulls capped; a clean daily close above flips the 200-day MA from resistance to support and opens $85,750 (Feb consolidation zone).

Bouncing +2% to $79,985 but stalling below the $80,000 round number and 200-day MA — recovery lacks volume confirmation and ETH's weaker +1% relative move signals limited broad crypto conviction.

Main risk

Macro risk-off / USD rebound

USD/JPY at 159.4 and equities soft — any hawkish Fed signal sends BTC back to $74,500 support before $80k is reclaimed.