Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin is battling a critical structural ceiling at the 50-month EMA ($65,600) while Glassnode on-chain data shows falling volumes and no confirmed trend reversal — the recovery looks fragile and the risk of another leg lower toward the $58,115 June low is elevated.

BTC is trading at $65,673 — directly at the 50-month EMA near $65,600, a level that has flipped from multi-year support to resistance and is actively capping the recovery rally.

Main risk

Kevin Warsh Fed hawkishness / rate hike risk

Newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, confirmed by the Senate 54-45, brings a hawkish reputation; markets are pricing a 40% chance of a 2026 rate hike which would pressure speculative assets including BTC sharply lower.