Bitcoin

Key insight

77,485 holds for now, but rejection below the 80,000 round number and the 200-day MA near 78,200 keeps sellers in control. A weekly close below 75,000 opens the 69,000 zone.

Stalls at 77,485 — 14% below the all-time high with no volume catalyst; ETH -0.1% confirms broad crypto weakness and the daily RSI is rolling over below 50.

Main risk

Macro risk-off / US equity correlation

S&P 500 flat-to-negative at 7,671; BTC-equity correlation above 0.6 means any equity leg lower drags BTC fast.