Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin has clawed back above the key 50-month EMA at ~$65,600 — a level that capped every prior recovery — but spot ETF inflows remain tentative and the Fear & Greed Index sits deep in Fear territory (26), meaning the breakout is fragile and needs follow-through volume to be trusted.

BTC at $66,264 has reclaimed the critical 50-month EMA (~$65,600) but faces a wall of resistance from the 2025 downtrend structure near $68,500–$70,000, leaving the rally unconfirmed by on-chain volume metrics per Glassnode.

Main risk

Fed Rate Hike Risk Under New Chair Kevin Warsh

Markets are pricing a ~40% probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026 under newly confirmed Chair Kevin Warsh (confirmed 54-45), which would strengthen the USD, compress risk appetite, and likely send BTC back below the $65,600 50-month EMA.