Bitcoin

Key insight

BTC is bouncing hard off the $62,600 US-Iran tension low but faces its most important technical test at the $68,000–$70,000 resistance band — a clean break there opens the path to Standard Chartered's $100,000 year-end target, while failure risks a retest of the $60,000 psychological floor.

BTC has recovered sharply from its July lows near $62,600 and is pressing the key $67,000–$68,000 resistance zone, but Glassnode on-chain metrics do not yet confirm a trend reversal, keeping conviction low.

Main risk

Fed rate hike risk — Kevin Warsh-chaired FOMC

Markets are currently pricing a 40% probability of a Fed rate hike, and newly confirmed hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could accelerate tightening expectations, crushing risk appetite and pressuring BTC below the $63,000 support.