Bitcoin

Key insight

65,300 Aug high capping BTC; break above triggers Fed-pause trade — failure risks flush to 62,000 support

64,867 stalls 400 pts below Aug high of 65,300 — weak jobs data priced in, next catalyst unclear

Main risk

Fed September rate decision

56% pause odds priced; any hawkish pivot re-pricing crushes the jobs-report bid at 65,300