Bitcoin

Key insight

The battle between institutional ETF inflows ($211M/day led by BlackRock IBIT) and the stubborn 50-day EMA resistance at $64,587 will determine whether BTC breaks higher or rolls back to the $62,000 support zone.

BTC is trading at $64,944 — above the 20-day EMA ($63,943) but still capped by the 50-day EMA ($64,587), a level that has rejected every rally attempt for three consecutive weeks.

Main risk

50-day EMA Rejection & Strait of Hormuz Re-escalation

If Hormuz negotiations collapse and the 50-day EMA at $64,587 holds as resistance, BTC risks a rapid reversal back below $63,000 — replicating the July 24 episode when Middle East tensions triggered $225M in single-day ETF outflows.