Bitcoin

Key insight

BTC absorbed a brutal cocktail of a hawkish Fed hold, a $70M Coldcard wallet hack, and $265M in single-session ETF outflows — yet held $63,000; that resilience is the bull's only card right now.

BTC is stalling just below the critical $65,000–$65,500 resistance zone while spot ETF outflows accelerated and a hawkish Fed dissent (3 votes for hike) lifted September tightening odds above 60%, capping upside.

Main risk

Fed September Rate Hike Re-pricing

With three FOMC members already voting to hike at the July 29 meeting, a hot August jobs or CPI print could push September tightening odds well above 60% and trigger renewed risk-off selling toward the $59,000–$60,000 put-protection zone.