Bitcoin

Key insight

The Fed's 3-dissent hawkish hold has materially repriced September tightening odds above 60%, removing the dovish tailwind that powered BTC's July rally and leaving the $60,000 put as the market's most popular hedge going into August.

BTC is trading below the key $65,000 resistance zone after a hawkish Fed hold with 3 dissents pushed September rate-hike odds above 60%, while spot BTC ETFs logged a net outflow of $61.53M for the week ending July 31.

Main risk

Fed September Rate Hike Re-pricing

With 3 Fed officials voting for an immediate hike on July 29 and markets now pricing a >60% probability of a September increase, risk assets including BTC face sustained headwinds from a higher-for-longer rates environment.