Bitcoin

Key insight

A hawkish Fed hold (3 dissenting votes for a hike) has pushed September rate-hike odds above 60%, draining risk appetite from crypto at exactly the moment BTC needs institutional ETF inflows to defend the $62,000–$63,000 zone.

BTC is trading below its 20-day MA at ~$64,567 inside a confirmed descending channel, with RSI at ~44 and spot ETF flows turning net negative — the path of least resistance remains lower toward the $61,400 channel floor.

Main risk

Fed hawkish re-pricing + September rate hike risk

With 3 of 12 FOMC members voting for a hike on July 29 and September tightening odds now above 60%, any hot macro print (CPI, NFP) could trigger a fresh sell-off through the $61,400 descending channel support.