Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin enters August — historically its worst-performing month — capped below the 50-day EMA at $64,891 and the $65,000–$70,000 resistance zone, with the bull thesis hinging entirely on a Fed pivot signal or a resumption of spot ETF inflows that has yet to materialize.

BTC is trading at $63,527 — trapped below the critical 50-day EMA at $64,891 and the key $65,000–$65,500 resistance cluster, while holding above the $63,000–$63,800 short-term support band, leaving the market in a decisive but unresolved range.

Main risk

Federal Reserve Rate Hike Risk

With US CPI at 4.1%, the Fed is openly debating its first rate hike in three years — a confirmed hike would spike real yields and drain risk appetite from BTC, threatening a breakdown below the $63,000 support floor.