Bitcoin

Key insight

The most important thing to know right now is that the Fed's rate decision — potentially its first hike in three years — has just passed, yet BTC is still -1.6% on the day, suggesting the relief rally has faded and the $65,600 50-month EMA remains an unbroken ceiling.

BTC at $63,756 is trading below the critical 50-month EMA resistance at ~$65,600 and has failed to reclaim it for several sessions, confirming the level as a structural cap on rallies.

Main risk

Fed Rate Hike Cycle Resumption

Markets priced ~40% odds of a Fed rate hike this week; a confirmed hawkish pivot by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would drain liquidity and pressure risk assets, with BTC likely testing the $60,000 round-number support.