AUD/USD — Analysis Archive

0.7100 cleared — next key test is 0.7185 resistance; RBA hold + USD softness keeps Aussie bid.

0.7100 cleared on IG feed — RBA held at 4.35% unanimously; next resistance cluster at 0.7180 then 0.7279.

0.7100 round-number resistance defines the near-term ceiling; break opens path to 52-week high at 0.7279

Hold above 0.7060 rising wedge base after RBA hold; break of 0.7180 opens 52-week range top at 0.7279.

0.7100 cleared post-RBA hold — next test is 61.8% Fib at 0.7114 then 78.6% Fib at 0.7182.

Break above 61.8% Fib 0.7114 opens 78.6% Fib at 0.7182; failure below 0.7053 invalidates rally.

Hold above 100-day SMA (0.7053) is critical — RBA hold at 4.35% + hawkish tone could push toward 0.7120.

0.7100 is the immediate test — clear above 61.8% Fib at 0.7114 opens 0.7182; RBA on Tuesday is the binary hinge

Wedge rejection at 0.7063 keeps bears in control above 55-day SMA (0.7014); next directional move hinges on US CPI

0.7100 tested — NFP print today is the binary gate; beat opens 0.7185, miss risks flush to 0.6980 support.

0.7064 three-week high broken — NFP today decides if 0.72 July range top comes next or pair stalls.

0.7000 round-number support holds pre-NFP — break either side sets the weekly close direction decisively.

Stalling at 0.7064 July high — Friday NFP miss would cement USD weakness and push AUD toward 0.7120.

Stalling at 55-day MA (0.7019) — break above 100-day MA at 0.7053 needed to confirm bullish trend resumption

The Aussie is holding a seven-week high at 0.70 on strong domestic PMI and RBA hawkishness, but a wall of moving average resistance between 0.7019 and 0.7053 must be convincingly cleared before any sustained bull run can develop.

The Aussie is caught in a technical no-man's land — above the 200-day SMA at 0.6913 (structurally bullish) but unable to clear converged MA resistance at 0.7019–0.7053, meaning a decisive break in either direction is imminent as US non-farm payrolls approach.

The AUD's recovery from 0.6864 is being capped by collapsing iron ore futures (13-month low at $92.85) and a China stimulus vacuum — a break above the 2026 high of 0.7185 is needed to validate a sustained bull run, otherwise the pair risks fading back toward the 200-day SMA near 0.6900.

The 0.7000 round number has flipped from resistance to tentative support, but the pair still faces stiff technical headwinds at the 55-day SMA (0.7019) and 100-day SMA (0.7053) — a confirmed close above both would open the door to 0.7185.

With the RBA policy meeting next week, a confirmed close above the 55-day MA at 0.7019 and 100-day MA at 0.7053 would open the path to the 2026 swing highs near 0.7185, but the pair remains in a non-trending environment until those caps are convincingly cleared.

The 0.7000 level has flipped from resistance to support — a confirmed hold here into the RBA meeting next week is the single most important technical development to watch for directional conviction.