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AUD/USD

Bullish

0.71 USD ▲ +0.36%

Analysis from Aug 12, 2026, 3:41 AM

0.7100 round-number resistance defines the near-term ceiling; break opens path to 52-week high at 0.7279

Holds above 0.7065 post-RBA hold; rising wedge caps upside at 0.7100 short-term

Main Risk

US July CPI beat — Fed hold risk

July CPI expected to rebound; upside surprise re-prices Fed cuts, lifts USD broadly

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Price Ladder

Hard Stop: 0.70 — Break of June swing low negates bull structure and 200-day MA support

Support 2: 0.70 — 50-day MA

Support 1: 0.70 — Rising wedge base / 20-day MA

Resistance 1: 0.71 — Key round number / wedge top

Resistance 2: 0.72 — Prior swing high Jul 2026

Bull Target 1: 0.72 — Jul 2026 swing high

Bull Target 2: 0.73 — 52-week high

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Scenarios

🐻 Wedge Break — USD CPI Shock

CPI shock unwinds carry; wedge breakdown targets 0.6900 then 50-day MA at 0.6980.

🐂 Wedge Resolved — Rally to 52-Wk High

Break above 0.7100 round-number triggers momentum run to 52-wk high at 0.7279.

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Macro Drivers

RBA Rate Hold at 4.35% — Unanimous Aug hold maintains AUD rate advantage vs. Fed funds at 3.75%; spread supports carry demand

US July CPI Print (Aug 13) — Rebound forecast after June's surprise dip; hot print strengthens USD and pressures AUD/USD below 0.7030

Gold at $4,407 / Commodities Bid — Gold +0.9% and oil +1.0% today reinforce AUD commodity-currency bid at current levels

China Demand & Iron Ore — Australia's top export link; copper +6.6% last month but iron ore trend uncertain — key watch for AUD direction

USD/JPY at 159.5 — Broad USD Firm — Yen weakness signals residual USD demand; limits AUD/USD upside extension above 0.7100

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Key Dates & TradingBrief View

📅 US July CPI release — Aug 13 (tomorrow, key binary event)

📅 Fed FOMC minutes release — mid-Aug 2026

📅 Australia July employment data — Aug 21

📅 RBA next policy meeting — Sep 2026

📅 US July retail sales — Aug 15

Cautiously Bullish — Hold long above 0.7030; add on confirmed break above 0.7100 with stop at 0.6950

RBA hold + commodity bid sustain bull bias; 0.7100 must break cleanly or wedge compression risks reversal on CPI shock

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