🇨🇭
Bearish
USD/CHF
0.81 CHF
▼ -0.02%
Analysis from Aug 12, 2026, 3:40 AM
0.8050 support holds — break below triggers flush toward 0.7900; US CPI due today is the decisive catalyst
0.8100 capped by 50-day MA; US CPI print today is make-or-break for USD recovery
Main Risk
US CPI surprise (Aug 12)
Hot CPI print above 3.0% could spike USD, reclaiming 0.8130 and aborting the bear leg
Full analysis with price ladder, scenarios & outlook in the app.
Get the App
Price Ladder
Hard Stop: 0.82 — Break above 0.8200 invalidates bear trend; reclaims June swing high and 100-day MA
Support 2: 0.79 — 2026 YTD demand zone
Support 1: 0.81 — Jul 30 swing low / key round
Resistance 1: 0.81 — 50-day MA / recent rally high
Resistance 2: 0.82 — 100-day MA / June swing high
Bull Target 1: 0.82 — 100-day MA / June swing high
Bull Target 2: 0.83 — Mar 2026 swing high
Full analysis in the app
Unlock now
Scenarios
🐻 CHF Dominance — Dollar Rolls Over
Soft CPI breaks 0.8050 support; pair re-tests 0.7900 demand zone.
🐂 CPI Shock Lifts Dollar
Hot CPI fuels USD rally back to 0.8200 100-day MA resistance.
Full analysis in the app
Unlock now
Macro Drivers
US CPI Release — Aug 12
— Consensus soft; cool print accelerates USD selling and extends CHF strength toward 0.7900.
Fed Hawkish Hold Stance
— Fed officials' recent hawkish comments lifted pair from 0.8050 — any dovish pivot reverses this.
CHF Safe-Haven Demand
— Gold at $4,407 and US-Iran uncertainty sustain CHF bid; pair remains capped below 0.8130.
UBS Year-End Target 0.78
— UBS forecasts USD/CHF at 0.78 by Dec 2026, framing current 0.81 level as structurally elevated.
DXY Breakout Failure
— DXY uptrend stalled in late July 2026, removing a key USD tailwind for the pair.
Full analysis in the app
Unlock now
Key Dates & TradingBrief View
📅 US CPI (Jul) — today, Aug 12: pivotal for near-term direction
📅 SNB next rate decision — Sep 2026
📅 US FOMC minutes release — late Aug 2026
📅 US Retail Sales data — Aug 15
📅 Jackson Hole Fed Symposium — late Aug 2026
Bearish Below 0.8130 — Sell rallies into 0.8130 with stop at 0.8200; target 0.7900 on soft CPI confirmation
Pair capped at 50-day MA 0.8130, CHF bid intact via gold/safe-haven flows; soft CPI today opens 0.7900.
Full analysis in the app
Unlock now