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USD/CAD

Bearish

1.39 CAD ▼ -0.07%

Analysis from Aug 12, 2026, 3:41 AM

1.3900 is the critical floor; break below opens 1.3820. Dense supply at 1.4019–1.4032 (100/200-period SMAs) caps any USD recovery.

1.3900 tested — pair at June lows after weak US NFP + surge in Canada July jobs erased two months of USD gains.

Main Risk

US CPI print — upside inflation surprise

Hotter-than-expected CPI could revive USD bid and challenge the 1.4019 SMA resistance.

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Price Ladder

Hard Stop: 1.41 — Close above 1.4055 voids bearish thesis — reclaims 200-period SMA & prior consolidation zone.

Support 2: 1.38 — May 2026 structure low

Support 1: 1.39 — June 2026 swing low / round number

Resistance 1: 1.40 — 100-period SMA

Resistance 2: 1.40 — 200-period SMA

Bull Target 1: 1.41 — Prior consolidation ceiling

Bull Target 2: 1.42 — 2026 mid-range / Fib 38.2% reclaim

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Scenarios

🐻 Loonie Breaks Lower — 1.38 in Sight

1.3900 gives way; two months of USD gains fully reversed with 1.3820 next key level.

🐂 USD Reclaims SMAs — Short Squeeze Risk

Reclaim of 1.4019–1.4032 SMA cluster triggers short squeeze back toward 1.4080.

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Macro Drivers

US NFP — July miss vs. Canadian beat — Weak US payrolls + surging Canadian July employment widened data divergence, sinking USD/CAD to June lows.

Fed policy — Bowman 'well positioned' — Fed VC Bowman signalled no urgency to hike; 3.75% Fed funds seen on hold, limiting USD upside.

WTI Crude Oil at $83.1 (+1.0% today) — Rising oil directly supports CAD via Canada's export revenues; sustained rally pressures USD/CAD lower.

BoC rate at 2.25% — dovish vs. Fed — BoC at 2.25% vs. Fed at 3.75% — 150bps spread limits CAD strength; BoC cut risk remains a USD floor.

US CPI — upcoming data risk — Attention shifts to US inflation print; upside surprise could flip USD/CAD momentum above 1.4019 SMA.

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Key Dates & TradingBrief View

📅 US CPI (July) — Aug 13, 2026: key USD/CAD inflection risk

📅 Bank of Canada rate decision — next scheduled date

📅 Canada July retail sales — mid-Aug release

📅 FOMC minutes release — mid-Aug 2026

📅 US PPI (July) — Aug 14, 2026: follow-on USD read

Bearish USD / Long CAD — Sell rallies toward 1.4019–1.4032 SMA zone; hold short while below 1.4055 hard stop.

Data divergence (weak NFP + strong Canada jobs) + oil bid favour CAD; SMA cluster at 1.4019–1.4032 is hard resistance.

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