S&P 500

Key insight

With the Fed on hold and the 30-year Treasury yield above 5.2% (highest since 2007), the bull case now rests entirely on Big Tech earnings — Microsoft's +16% surge and Amazon's accelerating cloud revenue are doing the heavy lifting that monetary policy cannot.

The S&P 500 has rebounded sharply from the Fed-induced sell-off low near 7,316 to 7,433, reclaiming the key 7,400 round-number support, driven by blowout Microsoft Azure earnings and strong Amazon cloud results confirming AI demand remains intact.

Main risk

30-Year Treasury Yield above 5.2% — 2007 High

The 30-year yield breaching 5.2% for the first time since 2007 compresses equity multiples and signals markets are questioning whether the Fed is doing enough to contain inflation.