S&P 500

Key insight

The S&P 500 is staging a technical bounce (~+117pts from yesterday's 7,316 close) after the worst FOMC-day sell-off since April 2025, but the bond market's verdict — 30-year yields at 2007 highs — means the real pain may still be ahead unless oil reverses sharply.

The Fed held rates steady on July 29 while 30-year Treasury yields hit a 19-year high and oil topped $90, signalling a stagflationary policy trap that pressures equity multiples at 7,433.

Main risk

30-Year Treasury Yield at 2007 High (~5.20%+)

Bond markets are pricing Fed policy error risk as the central bank held rates despite resurging oil prices and sticky inflation, compressing equity risk premiums and threatening a further de-rating of the S&P 500's ~22x forward P/E.