S&P 500

Key insight

The Fed's hawkish hold with three dissents for a rate hike has re-priced the 30-year Treasury above 5.2% (highest since 2007), creating a direct valuation headwind for equities even as Microsoft's Azure-driven beat provides a tech-sector offset.

The S&P 500 is staging a technical rebound from Wednesday's 1.52% Fed-driven selloff, but is held in check by 30-year Treasury yields above 5.2% — a level not seen since 2007 — and a split FOMC with three dissents for a hike, keeping the 7,450–7,500 resistance zone capped.

Main risk

30-Year Treasury Yield above 5.2% — 2007 highs

A sustained break above 5.2% on the 30-year bond would compress equity multiples further, threatening a retest of the S&P 500's recent swing low near 7,316, with the 200-day MA at approximately 7,100 as the next major structural support.