S&P 500

Key insight

Today is the most pivotal session of the earnings season: the Fed rate decision, Chairman Warsh's press conference, and major AI-spending tech earnings (Microsoft and Meta) all land on the same day, while a geopolitical shock — Iran launching surprise attacks against the US — has sent Oil surging +6.1% to $83.4, adding stagflationary risk to the mix.

The S&P 500 trades at 7,433 — just above the recent closing pivot of 7,428 — caught between a bullish sector rotation into consumer staples and discretionary and a bearish semiconductor selloff, with the outcome hinging on today's Fed decision by Chairman Warsh.

Main risk

Iran–US Geopolitical Shock + Oil Surge to $83.4

Iran's surprise attack against the US has driven Oil up +6.1% to $83.4 in a single session, reigniting inflation fears and potentially forcing the Fed into a more hawkish hold — a combination that historically pressures equity multiples, particularly at stretched S&P 500 valuations above 7,400.