S&P 500

Key insight

Big Tech earnings this week (Alphabet, Tesla, Intel) are the single most important catalyst: a strong AI monetization narrative could reclaim the 7,500 level, but another disappointment risks accelerating the semiconductor-driven breakdown toward the 200-day MA at 7,200.

The S&P 500 at 7,433 is caught between a resilient earnings season (87%+ beat rate) and a tech-led selloff from semiconductor weakness, with the index now sitting just below its key 50-day MA near 7,480 after last week's 1.6% decline.

Main risk

US-Iran geopolitical escalation pushing oil toward $90+

Tit-for-tat US-Iran military strikes over the weekend sent oil briefly to $90/bbl, threatening to reignite inflation pressures and complicate Fed Chairman Warsh's already hawkish stance on rate cuts.