S&P 500

Key insight

This week is a binary event minefield: Fed rate decision, Magnificent Seven earnings, and a semiconductor rout that already wiped 10% off South Korea's Kospi could decisively break the S&P 500's multi-month holding pattern above 7,300.

The S&P 500 is consolidating near 7,433 — just above the critical 50-day MA at ~7,380 — caught between a bullish geopolitical relief rally (US-Iran ceasefire) and intensifying semiconductor-led selling pressure ahead of a pivotal FOMC decision and megacap earnings week.

Main risk

Circular AI Financing Collapse & Semiconductor Rout

Nvidia's $500B SK Hynix deal and $250B OpenAI compute guarantee have reignited fears that hyperscaler capex could unwind, with AMD -5%, Nvidia -5%, and Sandisk -11% already leading the selloff into Tuesday's open.