S&P 500

Key insight

This is the most event-dense week of the year: the FOMC decision on Wednesday (July 29), 34% of S&P 500 market cap reporting earnings (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple), and Q2 GDP on Thursday — the outcome of any one of these can reset the entire macro narrative.

The S&P 500 futures surged on Monday as oil crashed 6.3% to $83.1 on a US–Iran ceasefire, clearing the key 7,429 resistance level and positioning the index for a run toward the July high at 7,575.

Main risk

Fed Chair Warsh hawkish pivot at July 29 FOMC

Markets price a 31% probability of a July rate hike; if Warsh signals rates above 3.75% are possible amid energy-driven inflation, the 10Y yield near 4.67% could spike and compress tech multiples sharply.