S&P 500

Key insight

Oil crashing to $83.6 from last week's ~$94–96 highs is the session's dominant bullish surprise — it simultaneously eases US-Iran geopolitical risk premium, reduces inflation overshoot fears, and lowers the probability of a rate hike at Wednesday's FOMC, but the Big Tech AI capex overhang (Alphabet guiding $195–205B) keeps a ceiling on any Nasdaq-led rally.

The S&P 500 at 7,433 sits just above last Friday's close of 7,411.98 and the near-term resistance cluster at 7,429–7,443, caught between a powerful Q2 earnings tailwind (87% beat rate) and a hawkish FOMC on July 28–29 where markets are pricing a 31–34% chance of a rate hike.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Hawkish Hike Surprise

Markets are pricing a 31–34% probability of an outright rate hike at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting; a surprise hike or aggressively hawkish tone from Chair Warsh could reprice 10-year yields above 4.80% and hit tech multiples hard, threatening a break below the 7,380 support zone.